British center: Turkish economy recovered and the worst is over

Turkey's economy is on the way to expansion, and the latest GDP data confirms that the worst is due to the government's stimulus measures and supportive fiscal stance, according to a report by the Uk's leading think-back center, ING Economics.

The report indicated that economic activity in the second quarter of this year contracted by 1.5% year-on-year, better than the agreed estimates of a contraction of 2.0%, although close to the position estimate of -1.6% year-on-year.

Under seasonally adjusted conditions, growth momentum maintained a good pace at 1.2% on a quarterly basis, having moved to a positive zone at 1.6% on a quarterly basis.

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) made some minor adjustments to GDP data in the first quarter from -2.6% year-on-year to -2.4% y/y.

Overall consumption continued to play a positive role in growth since the second quarter of 2017, up 3.3% year-on-year, raising the second quarter growth rate by 0.5 percentage points, the report said. This was reflected in the continued expansion of the annual budget deficit to 2.6% of GDP from 2.3% of GDP in the first quarter (1.9% in 2018).

He added that net trade contributed positively to the improvement of the economy, as exports maintained their upward trend, an increase of 8.1% thanks to improved price competitiveness, while imports shrank by 16.9% on the back of weak demand.

The report noted that, despite a slight decline in the construction and industrial sectors, the contribution of all other sectors had improved somewhat compared to the previous quarter, confirming that the recovery process was expanding.





Source/Agencies